Back on the Offensive - Autumn, 1939

On the Offensive at Sea

    As 1939 comes to a close, most of the action takes place at sea.  As autumn progresses, it becomes increasingly clearer how significant the turnaround at sea has been.  Up until recently, offensive operations (port strikes and convoy raiding) in southern zone 2 were out of the question.  However, since the war began in Europe, the British have withdrawn the bulk of their fleet, leaving around 20-30 (mostly small) ships.  And, in the Pacific, the American navy has been severely hobbled by their botched invasions of July and August.  Thus, I can now begin offensive operations in both zones 2 (around Singapore) and 3 (around Guam).

    After the invasion of Marcus Island, the Pacific is a fairly fertile area in early autumn.  2 Kaigun is sent to patrol the area around Marcus Island, and is able to sink three American heavy cruisers and a destroyer in early November, before heading back to Tokyo for repairs.  1 Kaigun is sent to lurk around Guam, where we find that the Australians have taken up guard duty for some reason.  We sink three Aussie destroyers on November 5^th and then another two on the 18^th, before turning over patrol to 4 Kaigun.  They run up against a strong American gunship fleet, which belies my earlier estimates of American battleship quantity.  In a hard fought battle we lose the light cruiser Kitikama and sink two American destroyers.  All other ships engaged are severely damaged, and we head back to our respective ports.  In Saipan we station a pair of unattached carrier flight groups.  They launch constant port strikes towards Guam, finishing off the battleship Maryland on December 25^th and driving the rest of the fleet away.  As the year closes out, 3 Kaigun is able to take over patrol duty in the region.  Hunting down another American gunship fleet, they are able to sink the battleship New Mexico and a destroyer on the 30^th.  One American battleship escapes, and I again come to the conclusion they have only one battleship left afloat.

    In zone 3, we begin long-overdue offensive operations against Singapore.  In the beginning of November, a healthy 10 Kaigun is sent to the area to conduct port strikes while 5 Kaigun will perform convoy raiding and open-sea interceptions.  By the 9^th, 10 Kaigun has sunk three destroyers in Singapore; they move northward to Khota Bharu, and sink four British submarines there during the last week of the month.  5 Kaigun is no less active, sinking a light cruiser and a landing craft on the 27^th, a pair of heavy cruisers and a destroyer on the 28^th, and a landing craft on the 29^th.  They then return to port, where Vice Admiral Fukudome is promoted to full Admiral.  2 Kaigun takes over patrol duty around Singapore in early December, sinking a destroyer, transport and a landing craft, as well as numerous convoys.  At the end of the month 1 Kaigun takes over, and sinks a light cruiser, destroyer, and landing craft on the 28^th.

The Noose Tightens in Burma

    By October, the encirclement of the Allied forces in Burma is complete.  Three divisions of mountain troops captured Dhaka and began pressing southeast in an attempt to capture Chittagong.  VIII Gun has fanned out along a wide front and is moving southward, while VI, VII and IX Gun drive the British northward.  At first, the Allies put up a strong defense, taking advantage of the rugged terrain and numerous rivers.  We fight countless battles, in which each side loses 200-500 men.  The fighting around Chittagong is especially fierce, and the Brits drive us back more than once.  However, we able to advance from all directions, and my superior numbers begin to overwhelm the defenders.  By mid November the Allies are in full retreat in the southern portion of the pocket, and VI Gun has met up with VIII Gun, improving the efficiency of my supply chain.  On Demeber 22^nd LI Gun marches into Chittagong, finally sealing the fate of the Burmese pocket.  They are now completely cut off from supply or more importantly, evacuation.  I suspect we have already overran or forced the disbanding of one to three divisions, but unfortunately Hearts of Iron doesn’t give messages for that, and my attention was diverted.  Even so, the final elimination of the Allies in East Asia is imminent.

The Burma pocket begins to implode

Elsewhere…

    In other portions of the world, a number of events deserve mention.  Nepal surrenders on October 5^th, and the portion of LI Gun not involved in the Burma Pocket proceeds unopposed through Northern India and Pakistan.  LXI Gun begins its drive back down the Malay Peninsula, but encounters continuous heavy fighting.  The parity of the opposing forces and the rugged terrain indicate slow progress there for the near future.

    With my supply lines now fully secure in zone 2, I have decided to employ V Gun in conquering Java.  I dropped them off in the eastern part of the island, and supply them through Soerabaja.  They have occupied about half of the island, and thus far have encountered only a single headquarters brigade in resistance.

    In Europe the Germans are making better time than I expected.  By the end of the year they have fully occupied the Netherlands and Belgium.  Belgium officially surrendered on December 26^th, and the Germans begin to chip away at France before the end of the year.  In Africa the situation is reversed.  The Italians have met with some success in Tangiers, but are losing ground in Libya, and have been completely driven from East Africa.  Ethiopia surrendered on November 18^th, and Italian Somalia is being occupied by the British as fast as they march.

    Of mild interest is the situation around the Baltic Sea.  On November 30^th the Soviet Union declares war on Finland.  Historically, this didn’t work out too well for them, and generally this has little effect on the outcome of the game.  On December 25^th the Soviets annex the Baltic States, which bolsters their strategic position marginally.

    As the year closes out, I begin to face the problems brought about by my successes.  In particular, my land forces deserve attention.  Up until now, my army has been more than adequate to deal with whatever the enemy throws at them; in fact, nearly half of my army is currently marking time in Japan.  Soon, however, I will have to spread them out into multiple and diverse theatres: Australia, New Zealand, the Pacific Islands, India, East Africa, South Africa, North Africa and the Middle East.  I will soon have to walk a very narrow line, balancing convoy usage, troop transport capability, and strategic needs, which should pose an interesting challenge.

    The farther outlook appears even more daunting.  I estimate I will need between 80 and 160 brigades of Rikusentai (marines); I currently have 30.  I also anticipate a need for between 120 and 250 brigades of mountain troops, and I have only 15.  The biggest discrepancy, however, is the gap between required and needed conventional forces.  I currently have nine Gun (corps) of conventional troops; not a single division has an armor component.  In order to conquer the United States, however, I expect I will need around 35 Gun, each filled out with expensive and time consuming armor.  Up until now I have had the luxury of fighting exclusively infantry, but the Americans can be expected to have tanks around every corner, and my current force is woefully unprepared for that.  Worse yet, the Americans, when at war, can far out-produce me, meaning my estimates may end up falling short.  The gains of the upcoming year should give me a good idea as to whether or not I can ramp up my resource and industrial production sufficiently to complete my goal of world domination.

Germany Joins the Fight - Late Summer, 1939

Continued Success in the Pacific

    After the high drama of July, both my fleet and those of the Allies needed some down time.  This down time favors me, of course, since my fleet needed only a few weeks of repairs, while the Allies will need years to replace the sunken capital ships.  The seas remained calm for the first few weeks of August, but on the 21^st the persistent Americans attempted a landing at Marcus Island, followed a week later by a French invasion of Taiwan.

    Marcus Island is not a high priority for me; it is in zone 4, and is too small and too distant from our homeland to be a problem.  However, the chance to deal another blow to the Americans is appealing, and I send out 1 & 3 Kaigun to see what we can accomplish.  At first, we fail to accomplish much at all.  The Americans landed unopposed, and thus the transports were able to escape before my fleets arrived.  The remaining American naval forces were focused around the Saratoga, which had escaped us last month, and now provided adequate air support.  We are able to sink only one heavy cruiser before driving them into port.  With the other ships under the Saratoga’s protective umbrella, our gunship fleets can do little, and head back to port while 11 Kaigun takes over.  They begin aggressive port strikes, and within a week deal a crucial blow by sinking the Saratoga itself.  Exhausted but victorious, 11 Kaigun returns to port, leaving the Americans in possession of an insignificant island and the burning hulk of an aircraft carrier.

    The French invasion of Taiwan is theoretically more problematic, as Gaoxiong is a large port and could serve as a very useful launching pad for future operations.  The French, however, lack the naval and air power to secure the island, and thus their invasion is more reminiscent of the humorous Dutch invasion earlier in the year than the more substantive American attempts last month.  In order to preserve our convoys for more important duties, I left Taiwan unoccupied, and thus the French are able to land unopposed.  However, 2 and 4 Kaigun are nearby, and are able to catch them during the landing operation.  We sink the battleship Bretagne and the battle-cruiser Dunkerque before they retreat into port.  They subsequently attempt a break-out a few hours later, and lose a light cruiser, a transport, and the battleship Provence before making it to the open sea.  Prior to this attempt, we estimated the French naval force at 22 ships, including one aircraft carrier and five battleships.  This battle cost them a quarter of their force, and a disproportionate number of capital ships, and must sting badly.

    The counter-invasion is held off until the smoke clears from the naval combat.  Trusty I Gun has become by default problem-solving force, and are landed north and south of Gaoxiong.  They attack the port on September 8^th from both sides.  We find that the French landing force consists of one French infantry division and three American airborne divisions.  Although completely cut off from any hope of reinforcement, resupply, or evacuation, they put up a strong defense.  We lose 1490 taking the port, and inflict 2780 killed.  Inexplicably, they are allowed to retreat eastward (I’ve never seen troops allowed to retreat into enemy-owned, enemy-controlled provinces), but this only delays the inevitable, and the remaining 33,277 men surrender when attacked again.

    The battles of Marcus Island and Taiwan are the only significant combat in Asia during the late summer of 1939.  By no means am I bored, however, as events in Europe keep me quite entertained.

Eruption of War in Europe

    The situation in Europe progresses along its expected trajectory.  On August 6^th we receive word of the finalization of the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact.  This prevents the Soviets from getting involved, at least for awhile, and sounds the death knell of Polish independence.  With no further need of subtlety, Germany mobilizes a few days later.  They give their army a few weeks to fully mobilize, and declare war on September 1^st.  Generally speaking, there isn’t much Japan can do to affect the war in Europe, but I have already made a significant impact on the course of events there.  Traditionally, the Germans can wipe out the unprepared Poles fairly quickly, then shift their forces to the west; there they give the Dutch and Belgians the same treatment, in order to circumvent the Maginot Line. Because of my warmongering in Asia, I’ve made things more difficult for the Germans.  The Netherlands and Belgium have already joined the Allies.  Thus, the war in Western Europe starts in earnest on day one.  Additionally, every Allied nation has been on war footing since the beginning of the year, so the Germans will be fighting full-strength opponents.  Oh well, they can handle it.

    The first month of the war in Europe is not especially noteworthy, at least from a safe distance.  The Italians join in almost immediately, while Hungary bides its time.  The Germans sweep across Poland with modest resistance; the most interesting point is the dogged defense of Danzig.  Normally it is the first point to fall, being sandwiched between two German provinces.  In this case, however, it holds out until the end and falls nearly simultaneously with Warsaw.  Despite an honest effort at self defense, Poland surrenders on October 4^th, and the Germans hand over East Poland to the Soviets the next day.

    The European Axis forces then focus their attention on the west, where it is needed.  Over the first month of combat, the Belgians and Dutch, likely aided by the French and British, push the Germans out of their forts along the lower Rhine.  The Allies then hold a swath of land from Bitburg in the south to Krefeld in the North, while the border remains unchanged north of that.  It is unlikely Germany will re-enact history by sweeping through the low countries easily; instead, the entire “sitzkrieg” period is likely to be replaced by continuous and bitter fighting all along the front.  I predict Germany will ultimately be victorious, and thus I need to make preparations to ramp up my land grab in Asia before Germany has a chance to foul things up.

Troop dispositions at the end of September, 1939

Food is Back on the Menu

    A fortunate combination of factors turned the supply situation around in South-East Asia for me.

    The first factor, which I mentioned in my last post, was the conquest of Vietnam and the subsequent reduction of my forces in the region.  The second factor is my continued replacement of convoys.  In July we produced two batches of convoys, thus tripling our merchant fleet.  Over the next several months I plan to complete convoys at a rate one batch (10 ships) every two weeks, which should be more than enough to replace recent losses and accommodate future growth.

    The third factor is the completion of a rail line through the jungles of Northern Vietnam.  This provides a connection between my numerous and well-protected Chinese ports and my hungry troops in Indochina.  At the moment, only a modest trickle of supplies can get through, but the shift to a single contiguous supply network should increase redundancy and ensure a more steady flow of supplies.

    The fourth factor improving my supplies is the significant drawback of Allied convoy raiders.  As I expected, once war broke out in Europe, the British immediately recalled the bulk of their fleet back to their home island.  The French and Dutch likewise probably withdrew whatever naval forces they had in Asia.  Thus, the convoy sinkings dropped dramatically in September.

    So, with supplies again reaching the front, the situation begins to turn around in Burma and the Malay Peninsula. LXI Gun, having retreated all the way back up the peninsula, finally meet supplies near Nakhon Si Thammarat. We concentrate the force into one province to discourage attacks, and begin to recover organization for the re-conquest of the peninsula.  10 Kaigun, launching a sortie towards Singapore, finds only a handful of destroyers there, indicating that this time the conquest is likely to be complete.

    In Burma the situation benefits both from increased supply and increased force strength.  Throughout July IX Gun was in trouble.  They were spread out to attempt to cover eight provinces with only six divisions; they had steadily given up ground in the west, and eventually abandoned Rangoon to the advancing British.  Yet the British did not occupy the city, and our fortunes began a dramatic turn-around in August.  VI Gun completed its long march through the Laotian mountains, and took up the position along IX Gun’s right; nearly simultaneously, VII Gun, having finally completed its (literally) year long march from Western Xibei San Ma to the Chinese coast, is ferried to Rangoon and takes up the spot on IX Gun’s left.  In the north, LI Gun splits into two portions, one driving to Kathmandu, the other to Dhaka.  Once we capture Dhaka, the Allies in Burma are cut off from the rest of Asia, and receive supplies only from Chittagong.  VIII Gun joins in the grand encirclement by driving south from Yunan towards Mandalay.  Thus we have five full corps cinching the British in Burma; the rugged terrain will keep our progress slow, but the final result is inevitable and likely to be decisive.

An Existential Crisis - Late July, 1939

    One interesting thing about Paradox’s games, is that you don’t really get screens saying “You Win!” or “You Lose!”.  This is more noticeable in Europa Universalis, but it is still largely true in Hearts of Iron.  You are mostly left to your own outlook as to when you have genuinely won.  Or lost.  Back in late 1938, before I declared war against the Allies, I delineated four zones of naval operation, ranked in order of importance.  Zone 1 is my primary supply zone, and is game critical, while zone 4 is the largely useless islands of Micronesia, while zones 2 and 3 are flexible, and are intended to be used for offensive or defensive operations, depending on the situation.  I if wind up having to use my entire navy to defend zone 1, and can only achieve a stalemate doing so, then I would consider the game lost.

    Thus, by the middle of July I find myself in a critical situation.  Over the last six months of war, I have been attempting to push supplies into the Philippines, Borneo, and Indochina, and have been losing convoys at a steady rate.  I am now down to only seven convoys, which are responsible for all of my supply and resource shipments throughout the empire.  I am steadily building more, but they trickle in slowly, and are barely able to keep any operations going.  I have mercifully avoided having to contend with the Americans so far, but it remains ever at the back of my mind that my current naval problems are being caused by only half of my enemies’ total strength.  That situation is bound to change, and for the worse.

    So, the potentially game-ending crisis arises on July 16^th, when I receive word the Americans are storming Naha.  Naha is the port of the Ryukyu Islands.  It is in the center of Zone 1, and is a great staging area for an invasion of the mainland, as well as a base for easy and perpetual raiding of my most critical routes between Japan and China.  If the United States is able to guard this port with a large fleet and air support, it's game over.

    So, I review my available forces.  10 Kaigun, my best fleet, is on patrol in the Gulf of Tonkin.  On the 18^th the Kaga earns the honor of sinking the first aircraft carrier of the war, the British escort carrier Hermes, but their flight crews are too spent to help against the more urgent threat.  11 Kaigun, likewise, is still recovering in Hong Kong from June’s exertions, and is not likely to be helpful.  1 and 3 Kaigun are in the best shape, and had been scheduled to go on raider-hunting duty near Singapore.  Instead, they are diverted to Naha, to see what we can do to stave off certain defeat.

    The odds are bad.  The Americans boast a full-strength aircraft carrier, the Saratoga, as well as six battleships.  By comparison, we have three battleships, a battle-cruiser, a few heavy cruisers, and some light cruisers.  We have no troops in the Ryukyu Islands, but most of 1 Homen-Gun is stationed in western Kyushu.  It will be impossible to prevent the landing of American troops.  By itself, that is not a problem; the Dutch performed a similar mission back in March.  The problem now, however, is that the Americans are fully able to fend off counter-invasions with a large and well composed fleet.  We have no choice but to pitch into them as quickly as possible, before they are able to bring in even more ships.

    The battle begins on the 19^th, while the landing is still in progress.  The fighting is bitter and intense from the start.  Their battleships open by firing upon our light cruisers, which are first to come in range.  Our cruisers are battered mercilessly, but are able to fade back as our larger gunships come up and begin firing.  This is the key point in the battle, and demonstrates completely how fleet composition can make or break a battle.  Our escorts took the brunt of the early firing, and served to distract the Americans.  As they began to fade back, the American battleships attempted to pursue, and had trouble picking new targets when our cruisers outdistanced them.  Our heavier ships, however, arriving later in the battle, immediately zero in on the American capital ships, while his escorts stay in the rear to guard the aircraft carrier and transports.  The battle immediately changes course, as we begin to tear through the ranks of the Americans.  They had advanced so far in pursuit of our escorts that they find themselves completely unable to retreat when they need to.  Overextended, they are sunk, one at a time, until the last one, the California, is able to limp the rear, aflame, taking on water, and barely afloat.  When the smoke clears, we take stock of the most crucial battle of the game.  Our heavy cruiser Takao and light cruisers Mogami and Naka are sunk, and most of the remaining fleet are heavily damaged.  Oddly, our battleships are barely scratched, and the Nagato escapes without so much as a chip of paint.  The Americans are far less fortunate.  We completely sink five of the six battleships, namely the Texas, Arkansas, New York, Oklahoma and Tennessee.  The California escapes with a sliver of hull strength remaining, and at the very least will spend months in dry dock.  The Tennessee also happened to be the pride of the American navy, and yields a nice little bonus to us.  Their aircraft carrier, transports and escorts remained in the rear throughout the battle, and escaped unscathed.

    With the ships of 1 & 3 Kaigun in dire need of repairs, we send in 2 & 11 Kaigun to attempt to finish the job.  It is likely the CAGs from the Saratoga are exhausted, thus making port strikes from 11 Kaigun a distinct possibility.  The Americans begin a series of breakout attempts from Naha.  They lose two destroyers during the first attempt on the 21^st.  Another attempt on the 24^th costs them another four destroyers, but they are able to make it into the open sea.  We pursue them and hit them again the next day, finally sinking the California, but the transports and Saratoga are able to make a clean get away.  The battle comes to an end as I Gun is brought in for a perfunctory land battle, and forces the surrender of the (now stranded) American land forces.

    Eastward, the Americans further prove their determination by mounting a large attack against Iwo Jima.  Iwo Jima is in Zone 3; it is therefore not critical, but if the Americans are able to capture it, it would greater improve their future odds.  Further complicating the situation is the fact that we are now running low on available, healthy fleets.  I send out 4 & 5 Kaigun, both of which still have a few damaged ships, to deal with the situation.  On the island itself I have two square divisions of garrison troops, who will be able to hold off the invading forces for awhile.  Like the Ryukyu invasion fleet, this fleet is heavy on capital ships, and light on escorts.  They have an aircraft carrier, the Lexington, three battleships, two transports and only two destroyers for escorts.  The naval battle develops in a very similar vein, and has happily similar results.  After a few days of battle on both land and sea, the Americans retreat on the 26^th.  We lose the heavy cruiser Maya, while they lose all three battleships, the Arizona, Nevada, and Pennsylvania.  The landing consequently collapses, with 616 of our chindai killed, and 1655 of their 42,000 man invasion force killed.

    As at Ryukyu, we are reluctant to let the Americans escape; we pursue aggressively, bringing in 2 Kaigun, which is still relatively healthy, from Ryukyu.  They are able to track down the American fleet on the 31^st; with the main gunships now gone and the Lexington’s aircrews exhausted, we drive straight into the core of the fleet, and are able to sink a destroyer, a transport, and the Lexington itself, the first full carrier of the war to be sunk.  Two days later, we track down the remaining ships, a destroyer and a transport, and sink them as well, thus completely obliterating the entire invasion force.

    The losses of the two American invasions are crippling to them.  At the beginning of the war, I estimate that they had four full aircraft carriers, ten battleships, and 16 heavy cruisers, along with assorted lesser ships.  In about two weeks, then, we sank 25% of their aircraft carriers and 90% of their battleships, for a total of over 70% of their total capital ships.  The heavy cruisers remain, but are little threat to my larger gunships.  Likewise they still have at least three aircraft carriers, which is more ominous.  But these lack staying power, especially this early in the war, and are likely to be used primarily for defense for the near future.

    There are a few lessons to learn from the various invasion attempts the Allies have conducted thus far.  First, the Dutch invasions illustrate how it is worse than useless to launch an invasion with significantly inferior forces.  Their land forces, and virtually their entire navy, were destroyed in the attempt, all at little gain.  The Americans learned this lesson, and came in with a much larger force.  However, their invasions were poorly timed; our navy, while not in great shape, was still reasonably well rested and ready to answer the challenge.  Worse yet, they failed to properly screen their main gunships, and consequently paid a very heavy, and unnecessary, price.  Had they included a few heavy or light cruisers, or even attacked a few weeks earlier, the outcome would have been quite different, and I would be writing the obituary of my empire right now, instead of just looking up how to spell the word obituary.

    And so July comes to a close.  Without a doubt it will go in the history books as the most significant month of the war.  The first half of the month saw complete success in Vietnam, including the capture of 80,000 French soldiers and establishment of complete control of the Gulf of Tonkin.  This was an expected success.  The second half of the month saw even greater gains, no less valuable for being unexpected.  We sink a huge portion of the American navy, and capture or kill around 50,000 of their troops involved in an ill-advised invasion attempt.  The Iwo Jima invasion force in particular was completely destroyed, and its commander, the formidable Admiral King, is presumed lost at sea.  Conversely, our naval officers are due for promotions, with Ozawa and Yamamoto reaching skill level seven, and consequently being made full Admirals, and several other officers being promoted to Vice Admiral.

    Things are going quite well for us now.  We take a moment for a bit of a breather, while our troops are shuffled around in Indochina, our ships get hammered and welded back into shape, and the Allies slink back to their homes to lick their wounds.  This, however, is the calm before the storm, as we have word that things are about to heat up dramatically in Europe.  The Allies are about to enter a period of darkness from which they will likely never return.  In the East, however, the rising sun shines brightly indeed.

The Close of the Vietnam Campaign - Early July, 1939

    After suffering through the supply deficient doldrums of June, I had resolved myself to a tedious and bland war of attrition for the next several months.  I lacked the punching power to completely eradicate the British fleet, or even attempt it.  Thus, my naval plan was to continue churning out convoys, and use them as unintentional bait to lure out small segments of the Allied fleets that I could chip away at gradually.  On land, the supply situation was dependant on the naval activity, and our plan was to focus supplies on each area individually, starting with Vietnam, and gradually drive the Allies from Asia.  This plan promised many slow, drama-less months, but considering the overall odds against me, that seemed to be the best choice.  July, however, upended this plan, and consequently the entire game.

    July began auspiciously enough, beginning in the Himalayan theatre.  Back in January, my original plan called for LI Gun, our mountain troops, to attack from Tibet southward into Bhutan and Nepal.  This plan was intended to allow me to build infrastructure in the region without risking an annoying counterattack from these countries, while simultaneously knocking them out of the game.  Of course, the border itself lacked the existing infrastructure, so that had to be completed before we could accomplish anything.  This dragged on a bit, and pushed the entire campaign back a few months, perhaps to the detriment of our forces in Burma.  But back in May, the roads are completed and LI Gun starts its hike through the highest peaks in the world.  This march drags on very slowly, and largely without action, and didn’t merit a mention before.  There were a few small battles, but our troops were much better prepared, and on July 4^th, they occupied Punakha with little resistance and forced the surrender of Bhutan.  Although the Bhutanese forces in Burma remain on the front, we at least clear a few divisions and headquarters brigades from the game.  LI Gun then turns west and begins the long march to Nepal, and fades back into obscurity for the next few months.

    In Vietnam, we see the culmination of our campaign.  After the Battles of Hue and Phon Phisai, the French are in dire straits and steadily retreat towards Haiphong, their last port in the area.  VI Gun has been redeployed to assist in Burma, leaving II and IV Gun to finish up the French.  The northern region of Vietnam is somewhat complicated, and makes for interested envelopment opportunities.  The northern border, with China, is impassable, as is the far northwestern edge.  The province of Phu Tho is also impassable, making a small corridor of provinces in the northwest that are easily entrapped, as well as Haiphong.  The terrain of the area is predominately jungles, but Hanoi features urban terrain, and a few rivers run through the area, giving the defenders some added resilience.

    II Gun was not involved in the Battle of Phon Phisai, and advances northward along the coast, attempting to break across the rivers before the French can dig in well.  IV Gun has a longer march, and steadily pushes the French up to the northern corridor.  16 & 17 Shidan break off to the east, and advance through Hanoi to attempt to cut off the French in Nghia Lo.  The French spot the plan, however, and retreat through the area too fast for us to spring the trap.  This turns out to be only a minor inconvenience, however, as the French are soon reduced to only three traversable provinces.  We therefore begin the final maneuvers on July 7^th, sending 8 Shidan to capture Thai Nguyen and divide the French.  The battle is hard fought, and marks the last real combat in the region.  We lose 1552 killed, and inflict only 1103 dead on the French.

II and IV Gun bring the Vietnam campaign to a close

    Now separated, we deliver the death blows against the final pockets of resistance.  IV Gun throws its full weight against Vinh Yen on the 9^th.  We no supplies, or possibility of reinforcement or evacuation, the French accept their fate.  They surrender within an hour or two, giving up nearly 40,000 POWs, our largest take yet of the war.  Haiphong presents a different option.  They have a total of 22 ships in harbor here, and this area is within range of easy port strikes from China.  Normally, I would leave the land forces here alone, and wither away the ships with air power.  However, we have a sense of urgency here, as our forces in Burma and the Malay Peninsula are in steady retreat due to lack of supplies.  Likewise, Haiphong is the last province in the Gulf of Tonkin bonus, which will give us +10% research efficiency and +10% leadership.  Thus, I forgo the easy naval victories, and order II Gun to finish the French.  They show some fight here, inflicting 224 casualties on us, but ultimately have no real chance of survival.  They suffer 1017 dead themselves, before the remaining 9973 surrender.

    With Haiphong captured, the French are now driven entirely out of Asia, excluding a single port in India.  Overall, the Vietnamese campaign is quite successful.  We fought in five major multiple-province battles, at Saigon, Paksane, Hue, Phon Phisai, and Haiphong, as well as a number of smaller pitched battles.  Our estimates for total casualties are: French POWs - nearly 80,000; French Killed in Action – 6500; French Killed by Bombers – 3000-6000; Japanese Killed in Action – 5000.  The territory itself is quite valuable; in addition to giving us the Gulf of Tonkin bonus, it yields around 10 additional manpower points, the Black Soil bonus in My Tho, about 18 units of rare materials daily, and small amounts of leadership, metals and energy.  Most importantly for the near future, the conquest will greatly improve my supply situation.  I can now focus my efforts on the two remaining areas, and return II and IV Gun to Japan, alleviating the strain on my supply lines.  It is also safer to ship supplies to the Vietnamese ports, and ultimately, I can carve a land route through the jungles along the Vietnamese-Chinese border, further safeguarding my supply routes.  As II Gun occupies Haiphong on the 15^th, I take a moment to reflect on all of this, and feel pretty optimistic about the future.  This feeling, however, lasts exactly 24 hours, as the event I was most dreading comes to pass.  I receive notice on the 16^th that the Americans are storming the Ryukyu Islands, and they are doing so in force…

A Summer of Plodding - June 1939

    June continues in much the same vein as May.  In particular, the lack of supplies is becoming critical.  By the end of June we are down to our last seven convoys, four of which are responsible for carrying supplies to and resources from China.  We have completely evacuated the Philippines, although mercifully the Allies have not taken advantage of this.  Borneo is also hard up; we have evacuated LXII Gun but the Chindai divisions remain in order to keep the Makassar Strait bonus.  While they consume fewer supplies, it is still a problematic situation as I have to choose between putting my convoys on suicide runs to supply them or let the Chindai fade to zero organization.

    The halted advance in Burma comes to haunt me; my line is uneven, and the Allies take advantage of this to imperil the various divisions of IX Gun and force their retreat.  By the end of the month, we have lost a one-to-two province wide swath of land in the area.  Fortunately, the Allies are still not strong enough to mount any legitimate attacks, and so far the losses are due only to maneuvering.

    In the Singapore area, the situation is worse.  After six weeks with little or no supplies and constant air attacks, LXI Gun has reached its breaking point.  It retreats from its position in Johore Bahru, and begins a two month long retreat back up the peninsula, in hopes of reaching supplies and refuge at some point south of Phet Buri.

    The only remaining bright spot on land is our progress in Vietnam.  I am able to ship in adequate supplies to the area via air drops and the minor, reasonably secure ports along the Vietnamese coast.  In early June we fight our first major battle since the collapse of the Hue pocket, at Do Luong.  II Gun loses 652 men and inflicts 937 casualties on the French, as we push back their main body of troops.  Once this is done, IV and VI Gun begin the encirclement of the French right at Phon Phisai, the site of 30 Shidan’s narrow escape back in March.  Phon Phisai is a tricky area to encircle, bordering seven provinces.  One province, Vientiane, has low infrastructure, and can be excluded.  We therefore set IV Gun to occupy the three provinces along the north and east, while VI Gun occupies those along the south.  The only French reaction is to send a headquarters brigade to Muong Bo, which is quickly swept aside.  All the pieces are in place by the 13^th, and we make short work of the French division there.  They suffer 611 dead and 8389 captured, at a cost of 163 casualties to VI Gun.  With the front in this area now much smaller, VI Gun turns west to join IX Gun in Burma (and bring some supplies with them), while IV Gun fans out to sweep the Vietnamese interior.

Now this is how you entrap and destroy a division

    At sea, the situation maintains its low simmer as the Allies continue to raid our convoys and we continue to try to hunt them down.  On June 19^th, 2, 5 and 10 Kaigun hit a group of French and American raiders in the Gulf of Tonkin, and sink a French light cruiser, transport, and two American subs.  2 and 10 Kaigun return to port, but 5 Kaigun stays on patrol, and is rewarded by a battle with a British gunship fleet on the 23^rd.  In a series of battles, with 1 and 4 Kaigun jumping in, we were are able to sink the battleship Nelson, three heavy cruisers, a light cruiser and a destroyer.  However, we lose our heavy cruiser Furutaka, the largest ship we have lost so far.  While I have little use for heavy cruisers, they can be helpful, and I regret its loss.

    On the periphery of the war, a few events of note occur during June.  On the 15^th, Bolivia joins the Allies.  After surviving all of June without being ground to dust by Paraguay, I think I may be overestimating their military ability a bit, and I am mentally fortified to resist Bolivia as well.  In the Middle East, the Turks seize Hatay, a minor event, although it is indicative of the steady escalation in Europe and decline of France’s fortunes.  Closer to home, the Americans, having occupied Mili in March, continues through the Pacific by occupying Panope and the adjoining Kosrae.  This, likewise, is insignificant by itself, but does serve to mark the ominous approach of the formidable American navy, which has been mercifully absent thus far.

A map of the main combat theater in late June, 1939.  Markers indicate large bodies of soldiers.

Reversals of Fortunes - May 1939

A relatively calm sea

    With the Allies’ navies smarting from the sea battles of early April, they spend most of late April and early May in port out of our reach.  Even still, in early May, 4 Kaigun manages to hunt down a British gunship fleet near the Philippines and sinks a heavy cruiser, two light cruisers, and a destroyer over two days of running battles.  20 Kaigun (made of four submarines) had been patrolling around Guam, but after sinking a few cargo ships, they were hunted down and lost two boats before escaping.  In partial retaliation, 10 Kaigun was sent to the area and was able to sink a submarine.  By mid-May, the remaining boats of 20 Kaigun were patched up and sent back out, where they regrettably met with the same result.  An American carrier group tracked them down on the 20^th and sunk the remaining two subs, and Rear Admiral Ito was lost at sea.  The career of this fleet in particular indicates why I have little use for submarines.  After sinking a handful of cargo ships, they themselves are sunk, having consumed about as much supplies while in port as they destroyed when active, and really never justifying their existence.

    In May, hoping to take advantage of the successful port strikes against Haiphong in April, we start patrolling the Gulf of Tonkin aggressively.  The French respond by throwing their entire fleet into the area.  We meet them on the 17^th in what is likely the biggest naval battle yet of the war, with over 25 ships on each side.  A quirk of Hearts of Iron 3, however, is that the stacking penalty is almost crippling with fleets of that size.  After “raging” for two days, the battle eventually ends, with only a single French transport sunk, and that by misdirected French fire.  Virtually all of the ships involved are dinged up pretty badly, and we retire to our respective ports for repairs.

    3 Kaigun is now the only fleet in good shape for patrol, and heads off to Philippine coast, where the Allies have been hitting our convoys hard.  On the 23^rd it hits paydirt, and is able to sink a trio of British destroyers, and significantly, the battle-cruiser Hood, the pride of the British fleet.  This news will drop my dissent level by two points when I decide to make the information public, so I get to enjoy reduced consumer goods production for a month or so.

A turn for the better in Vietnam

    In April, VI Gun found itself outnumbered in French Indochina, and dense terrain favored the French.  We brought in II, III and IV Gun to turn the tide, and by May the French were in full retreat.  The Allied convoy raiding was hindering my supply lines, so once we captured Quang Ngai we sent III Gun back to Japan.  II Gun proceeds up the coastline, VI Gun concentrates itself on the left flank, and IV Gun drives through the center.  II Gun encounters resistance, but holds the French troops in place while IV Gun diverts to the coast, cutting the French off.  From the 3^rd to the 9^th we gradually tighten the noose, until the last French troops are scooped up at Hue.  We end up claiming around 21,000 POWs, in addition to a thousand or so killed in battle.  We are able to advance another 200 kilometers before the French are able to recover from this blow.

A turn for the worse everywhere else

    In other theaters, our luck turns from good to bad.  Our supply base, nominally, is Phet Buri, but as we are steadily losing convoys, it is more efficient to drop the supplies off at Vietnam.  This means our troops in Vietnam are well supplied, and those in Burma and Singapore start to go empty-handed.  After the Battle of Rangoon, we are able to push the British/Nepalese/Bhutanese troops back a bit, but the offensive quickly stalls as we run out of supplies.  The jungles and swamps go quiet for the month as both our troops and those of the Allies lack the supplies or the morale to fight.

    In Singapore, our advance, unstoppable at first, came to a halt as we found ourselves unable to physically cross over to the island city-state.  It was, at first, merely a bit of a mild embarrassment, as we had forced the surrender of two British divisions already.  However, the British were able to take advantage of the reprieve, and shipped in fresh troops.  Throughout May, they continuously bombed and assaulted LXI Gun across the strait.  The bombing raids were mildly successful, killing around 2000 during the month, but the assaults were far less so, costing them around 5000 men.  The situation remains a stalemate at the end of May.

    One final item worth mentioning:  the military juggernaut of Paraguay has joined the Allies.  Normally, this presents such a formidable obstacle that I would resign, sign off on this blog, and probably spend the next few months wallowing in Angry Birds.  But, for the heck of it, I’ve decided to see if it is possible to even last a full month against the wrath of the Paraguayans.  If this blog is never updated again, assume they got the best of me and look for my new blog: Angry-Birder with Free Time.

Early Spring 1939

The Fate of 30 Shidan

    When we last left our intrepid conquerors, 30 Shidan had gotten itself into a tight jam.  Pushing northward towards Hanoi, it ran up against four French divisions.  Sensing the danger, I ordered them to about-face, and attempt to fall back and re-establish a link to the rest of VI Gun.  They failed, however, and the French were able to march into Phon Phisai and Ban Nape before us, completely sealing us off.  I attempted to push the French out of Phon Phisai, but was counter-attacked from the north.  I broke off my attack, but the French, tasting blood, kept up the counterattack.  The situation was dire.

    I was able to bring in my tactical bombers and a cargo plane unit to Haikkou.  They were able to make things hot enough for the French to force them to break off the attack, and the cargo aircraft were able to bring in adequate supplies.  I was still in a bad spot, though.  My fly-overs indicated there was at least one more division in the area, and a HQ unit.  If they moved quickly, they could have completely surrounded 30 Shidan, attacked with everything, and wiped it out.  Mercifully, the AI tends to lack any sense of coordination.  Instead of maintaining the encirclement, the divisions in Phon Phisai and Ban Nape simply kept heading south, thus re-opening the escape hatch.  30 Shidan was able to retreat in their wake, and re-establish a line of supply on March 20^th.  Crisis, averted.

Tensions Escalate in Europe

    Italy joined the Axis back in January, shortly after I declared war.  After a month or two of conference, the European Axis powers decided to start ramping things up in their sphere of influence.  On the 26^th, the Germans finished what they started in the Sudetenland, and annexed the remainder of Czechoslovakia.  Italy joined in the fun and annexed Albania.  The next day, Germany threatened Lithuania and seized Memel.  In early April the Hungarians also join the Axis.  Overall, everything seems to be going apace in Europe.

The Battle of Rangoon

    So far, IX Gun has done little except march.  The Allies put up no resistance as we occupy Southern Burma.  That changes in late March, as we run up against several divisions of British, Nepalese and Bhutanese infantry.  Our first goal is to encircle Rangoon, the largest port in the region.  We complete that maneuver by the 21st, and the Allies promptly launch counter-attacks in an effort to open a corridor.  The counter-attack against Pegu lasts until the 24^th, costing them 890 dead and us 196.  The attack against Henzada lasts until the 27^th, with somewhat higher casualties.  With our rear secure, we launch into Rangoon itself.  It falls after three days of intense fighting, costing us 242 KIA, and the British 867 dead and 9548 captured.  The Allies, however, still feel confident, and launch two additional attacks as we adjust our front in early April.  These are even more lopsided, costing them around 800 dead in each and us less than 100 total. The series of battles costs them an even 4300 dead and twice as many captured, at a cost to us of only 684 dead.  IX Gun has proven not only are they every bit as capable as the rest of the army, but also that the well-led, well-equipped Europeans are ultimately little better than the marginal Chinese forces.

IX Gun tries its hand at encirclement

The Naval War

    With the British stacking dozens of ships in their ports, striking them directly is out of the question.  By March, I am limited to rotating my gunship fleets to try to protect my supply ships heading to Phet Buri and Borneo.  It is an uphill battle, and we are losing transports at a staggering rate.  Nonetheless, they make good bait, and lure out small groups of British ships that we can meet on even terms.  On March 20^th 5 Kaigun sinks a British heavy cruiser and destroyer in the Gulf of Tonkin, and four days later 4 Kaigun claims a pair of French destroyers in the same area.

    In April the situation escalates dramatically as 1 Homen-Gun starts occupying the French Vietnamese ports, forcing the ships stationed there to seek new bases. On April 1^st 5 Kaigun sinks the battleship Malaya off of Cam Ranh, and a light cruiser a few days later. 3 Kaigun sinks a heavy cruiser and two destroyers there on the the 5^th. On the 10^th 2 Kaigun engages a large fleet, and sinks the battlecruiser Renown and two destroyers, but loses the heavy cruiser Izumo. With our fleets damaged, they return to Hong Kong for repairs, and let our naval bombers take over. Now stationed in Saigon, they launch attacks against Quang Ngai and sink a French destroyer and a submarine on the 12^th.

    On the 18^th, the Allies try something rather unexpected.  The Dutch, rather preposterously, attempt to invade Taiwan and the Ryukyu Islands.  1 Kaigun sallies out and descends on the Taiwan invasion fleet like a pack of wolves.  The entire Dutch fleet, 3 light cruisers, a destroyer, and four transports, is sunk within a day of fighting.  The Netherlands are able to land a division at Naha; 2 Kaigun, still bruised from the battle against the Renown, attempts to sink the fleet, but are only able to pin down a single destroyer.  V Gun, which was marking time in mainland Japan, is brought in to retake Naha.  They kill 496 and take the remaining 5504 prisoners, and force the fleet out into the waiting arms of 2 Kaigun.  We have more luck this time, and polish off most of the fleet, sinking a light cruiser, a destroyer, a submarine and two transports.

    After that bit of diversion, the pilots from 11 Kaigun want to try their hand.  Starting on the 20^th, we begin a relentless port strike campaign against Haiphong.  This is the most profitable operation so far in the war; by the end of the month, we’ve sunk two heavy cruisers, a destroyer and three submarines, all at little cost to us.  To cap it off, we send the battleship Lorraine to the bottom of the sea on the 30^th, giving me a nice exclamation point to a month of naval successes.

Beginning of the Big War - Winter 1939

    I forgot to mention it at the time, but as a result of my war against Siam, both Mexico and Canada joined the Allies.  Neither country has any kind of navy (or army, for that matter), but it does complicate the possible invasion of the United States.  Thus, when I declare war on January 5^th, 1939, (nominally against the Netherlands), I put myself at war with:

• France
• United Kingdom
  • Bhutan
  • Nepal
  • Iraq
  • Oman
  • Yemen
• United States
  • Philippines
• Netherlands
• Australia
• New Zealand
• Canada
• South Africa
• Mexico
• Greece
• Poland

    Within a few weeks of the declaration of war, the list swells to include Belgium, Panama, Honduras and Venezuela.

     The initial battles are rather favorable for me.  Our fleets are mostly used to guard the transports during the first few days, although 11 Kaigun is deployed to the Singapore area, and, through a combination of port strikes and open sea combat, is able to sink a trio of French transports.  They were probably not carrying any troops, but I can hope.

    5 Kaigun is responsible for escorting LXII Gun, and sees plenty of action at the outset.  In its first battle on the 9^th off the Northern coast of Borneo, they sink a Dutch light cruiser and destroyer.  The troops disembark by the 11^th, and 5 Kaigun goes into patrol mode.  On the 15^th they encounter a British gunship fleet, and give battle; our light cruiser Oi is sunk, as are two British light cruisers.  A follow-up battle the next day sees the sinking of a British destroyer before the fleet is able to escape completely.  The loss of a somewhat old light cruiser is not a big deal, but we had exactly 100 ships, meaning we lose the Grand Fleet bonus.  That stings a bit, but we’ll get it back, and we can still claim a good kill ratio four light cruisers and two destroyers for one light cruiser of our own. The fleet returns to port to repair, and is back on patrol in the Gulf of Tonkin in a few weeks.  They claim another light cruiser and destroyer during February.

     3 Kaigun has even better luck.  Initially posted to the Philippines, they are re-routed to the Singapore area, and, by the 18^th, have sunk four British heavy cruisers and three destroyers, all without a loss.  A few other minor battles occur, in which no ships are sunk, and overall, the beginning of the naval war looks very auspicious.

     On land, we experience our customary success, aided by the expected lack of cohesion of the Allies.  Zhanjiang is captured without resistance by one of our Chindai divisions.  The British in Hong Kong put up a lengthy, but ultimately ineffectual fight, costing III Gun 56 dead, while they lose 519 killed and 5475 captured.  This battle marks our 250th distinct engagement, giving us the Veteran Army bonus (+5% Leadership, +5% Organization Regain Rate, +5% Land Organization), which is a nice little perk that will help me significantly in the next few years.

Borneo

     LXII Gun is landed in Miri; the British 6^th Indian Infantry (Ghurkas) is defending Kuala Belait, and immediately attacks.  This brave, but ill-advised attack ends by the 12^th, costing us 145 dead the British a staggering 1175 dead.  356 & 357 Rikusentai counterattack, pushing the Brits out of the port, and eventually force the division to surrender.  They are then shuttled down to the port of Tarakan, along the eastern side of the island on February 4^th.  The Dutch defenders of this port cost us 106 KIA, while they lose 487 killed and 5494 captured.  We face no further resistance capturing the other points along Makassar Strait.  We unload a Chindai division into Laut, in order to occupy that province, and supply them by air until we can carve out a road to them.  We receive the Makassar Strait bonus by March 7^th.  After the battle of Miri, the remainder of LXII Gun heads southwest.  They meet no resistance until hitting a Dutch division guarding Pontianak on February 13^th.  We suffer 121 killed forcing them out, and inflict 497 killed on them.  Penned in amongst the jungles of the island, they surrender shortly thereafter.

Philippines

     As we begin landing in the Philippines, it quickly becomes clear that I’ve brought far more troops than I need.  V Gun meets no resistance capturing Puerto Princessa, and secures the supply line, while IV Gun also meets little resistance near Legaspi.  I and II Gun immediate push westward.  By late January, I Gun has stretched out to encircle Manila, and occupies that city with little resistance on the 29^th.  Several divisions are pinned in at San Pablo, south of Manila, and II Gun attacks them on the 31^st.  By February 3^rd the entire Philippine army is cornered at Batangas.  The series of battles cost us around 200 killed, and the Philippines loses around 1000 dead, with another 9000 captured.  That marks the end of the Philippines, and they surrender on February 11^th.  As the Philippines collapses, British fleets evacuate their ports; 2 Kaigun is able to sink a pair of light cruisers and a submarine, while 1 Kaigun sinks two light cruisers and the battleship Warspite.  This marks the first capital ship of the game sunk, and is a nice little cap to the Philippines campaign.

Singapore

     The Singapore campaign is less wildly successful.  LXI Gun divides up into three parts, and progresses on a wide front through the peninsula.  By February 4^th we’ve cleared the peninsula of British forces, leaving only Singapore.  “Only Singapore”, however, is a misnomer, as the province is effectively an island, giving attackers an amphibious landing penalty, plus a fort penalty, and finally urban assault penalty.  The city is initially held by the Singapore Garrison (actually a regular infantry unit), and is reinforced mid fight by the 1^st Royal Marines.  They eventually surrender after 20 grueling days of fighting.  We lose 1883 killed out of 46,000, by far our highest loss; the Brits lose 2191 killed, and an additional 20,373 captured.  All of this, however, is for naught, as they send their warships (by now they have over 70 ships in the region) to block our occupation of the city.  Unable to proceed, the LXI Gun is stalled for the remainder of the month.

Vietnam

     VI Gun encounters unexpectedly stiff resistance in French Indochina.  Things go according to plan at first; we fan out on a one-division-per-province front, and we march through Cambodia and Southern Vietnam with no opposition.  We take My Tho and Saigon, but begin to hit real resistance just north of Saigon.  The Gun reserve launches an attack in Sre Khtum; we turn out to be badly outnumbered, and lose 582 dead, while inflicting only 428 casualties on the French before breaking off the attack.  On the far left, 30 Shidan pushes well into Northern Vietnam.  Expecting only one or two divisions of French forces, they drive up to Paksane by March 11^th, before I realize they are in serious trouble.  At least four French divisions counter-maneuver from all directions, surrounding and threatening to cut off and destroy the division.  The division attempts to retreat, but hits one of the French divisions in Phon Phisai.  The French counter-attack from the East, and I decide to break off my attack and defend.  I quickly move my tactical bombers and cargo plane to Haikou for some emergency air support.  The bombers cause the French to break off their attack, and each side claims around 130 dead.  With the Philippines conquered, I ferry I, II, and IV Gun to Saigon to help deal with the forces there.  As March comes to a close, the situation is still unbalanced and 30 Shidan is still in serious peril.

30 Shidan runs into trouble.  The French troops occupy Phon Phisai and Ban Nape soon after this, entrapping the division.

Decision Time

    So, with all of the minor East Asian states now under my control, the time has come to actively decide whether I want to go to war against the Allies by myself or wait for the Germans. I draw up the following plan for the initial stages of the war, which I will likely use regardless of whether I go to war now or wait:

Plans for the first phase of the Japanese-Allies War

    In my previous conflicts, the navy was largely superfluous; they had to knock out a few escort craft belonging to the Nationalists and Siam, but never had a critical or even mildly challenging role. That ends once I declare war; my navy will be pitted against the Americans and the British simultaneously, with the French, Dutch and Australians thrown in for good measure. We will be significantly outnumbered, and frequently out-gunned. The navy will be the center of the war for the first year or two. Accordingly, I have divided up the map into four key zones of conflict:

    Zone 1 is the supply defense zone, in which my main supply ships travel to and from mainland Asia and the Philippines. If I am unable to maintain naval supremacy in this zone, I basically consider it a lost game.

    Zone 2 is the region from Southern China to the Dutch East Indies. The focal point of this zone is Singapore, as this is largest port in the area and will be the base of the British fleet. I expect the French and the Dutch to send ships to this area too, as it covers most of their Asian ports. If zone 1 is secured, most of my effort will go into offensive operations in this area, namely hunting down raiders, Allied convoys and transports, and conducting port strikes.

    Zone 3 is a small circular region around Iwo Jima, Saipan and Guam. This will be the initial focal point of my war against the US. Guam is far from any American territories, and is easily isolated. It also has a fairly small port, and the Americans can station only a part of their fleet there at a time. If I have surplus ships, I may attempt to conduct offensive operations here, but the main naval effort here will be focused on light convoy raiding and preventing the capture of Saipan and Iwo Jima.

    Zone 4 is made up of the Pacific Ocean around Marcus Island in the north down to Micronesia and Palau in the south. I intend to effectively cede all of these minor islands to the Allies. I have removed all troops from them, and I am not supplying them. They have no resources, and are not worth defending. As the war progresses, I can counter-invade these islands once I have the navies of the European powers.

    On the land, I am expecting a relatively easy time of it. The various Allied areas are separated and lightly defended, and the AI rarely handles invasions well (namely, they usually don’t concentrate their forces to put up an effective resistance). 1 Homen-Gun will be responsible for the Philippines. I and II Gun will land at Lopez on the main island of Luzon. From there they will advance west and north to capture Manila and other key points in the nation. V Gun will be landed at Taytay on Palawan Island, and will capture Puerto Princessa and Calapan in order to provide a supply line for the main effort. IV Gun will land at Daet on Luzon, and proceed south to capture the port at Legaspi and victory points farther south, if necessary. III Gun will initially be responsible for capturing Hong Kong, but once that is done, will join I & II Gun in the main drive across Luzon.

    2 Homen-Gun will be responsible for mainland Asia. VI Gun will attack eastward from Siam into French Indochina, and will move up the coast in a wide front to occupy all of the provinces, starting with My Tho (with the Black Soil resource) and Saigon in the south, then moving north through Hue to Hanoi and Haiphong. I expect little resistance from the French, maybe one or two divisions, and we should get the Gulf of Tonkin bonus rather quickly. VII, VIII, and the new formed IX Gun will attack northwestward from Phet Buri into the British areas of control. IX Gun will be going alone at first, as the other two Gun are still marching back from Tibet and Xibei San Ma, but I expect little resistance here as well. LI Gun, once the roads in the area allow it, will attack southward from Tibet into Bhutan and Nepal. They will then clear the mountains of Northern India while 2 Homen-Gun focuses on the easier terrain of Southern India.

    LXI Gun will attack south from Siam towards Singapore. Once that key point is taken, they will split into two parts, one hopping along the Sumatran coastline to occupy all of the small Dutch ports, while the other part focuses on Oosthaven and the nearby Oil Refinery resource. Once that area is taken, the two will combine to sweep the island of Java from west to east, effectively knocking the Dutch out of the war.

    LXII Gun will be sent to Borneo. The first target will be Kuala Belait; once that is captured, the Gun will be split into two parts; one part will proceed southwestward to capture the remaining areas of Northern and Western Borneo, while the other part re-embarks and starts bouncing down the eastern coastline to capture the ports along the Makassar Strait. Once that is done, we will cross over to Makassar, and seal up the Makassar Strait strategic bonus.

    So, I come to decision time. I have three options:

1. Declare full war against the Allies now, compelling Germany to join in;
2. Declare limited war against the Allies now, and let Germany declare a separate war later on; or,
3. Wait until Germany declares war, which will likely be around September 1939, and declare a separate war then.

    I don’t think my first option is very attractive. Due to its size, Germany will automatically take the leadership role in any war, meaning that they will gain ownership of some provinces which I haven’t occupied whenever a nation surrenders. That’s a very unappealing option, as it means that Germany may receive several key points, which may mean I lose large amounts of rare materials and oil. Further, if they lose against the Soviets (which I’m planning on), the Soviets may then gain control of some of this area, which will make for a major mess.

    There are two benefits to waiting. First, it will allow the Germans to distract part of the British and French navies. Second, I will have extra time to work on my aircraft carriers, which are set to be completed in the summer of 1940. While the first benefit is helpful, it is not critical, and I expect the Germans to declare war within the year anyway, at which point the Brits will pull their navy back home. The second benefit is perhaps even more dubious. While building the carriers, I am consuming very limited resources. By the time the Germans declare war, my industry may already have run out of rare materials or metals, and I likely won’t even have the cash to fully mobilize. Also, during that same time, both the Americans and the British will be building ships of their own. The words of Abraham Lincoln come to mind: “You are unprepared, they are unprepared. You are both equally unprepared.” He was wise to urge his generals to attack early and decisively; they did not follow his advice, and hundreds of thousands died as a result. The choice, then, is clear. I begin moving my troops to their kick-off stations, and prepare to declare war at the beginning of the year.

The Conquest of Siam - October 1938

    On September 9th, Germany annexes the Sudatenland. This is good for me, because it means that the Germans are still fully willing to serve as the main event in Europe while I sweep up the European colonies en masse. However, they aren’t scheduled to really step up to this role for another year, which means I need to decide whether I want to idle away a precious year of time, money, and accumulated resources, or swallow the big pill in and go at the Allies alone.

    In the meantime, we still have one country left on the worth-conquering list: Siam. We’ve been buying rare materials from them for awhile now, but it would be cheaper to just conquer them, so, you know …

    Siam has six victory points total: three in the capital, Bangkok and one in each of Phet Buri, Chaiya, and Khon Kaen. With a unity around 70%, that means we need to capture five points. Khon Kaen is deep inland, surrounded by mountains and jungles, making it the obvious choice to ignore. Our plan, then, is land near each of the remaining points and capture them rapidly, before Siam has a chance to mobilize fully.

    Fortunately, we have recently completed ten full divisions for Rikusentai (marines), which are great at naval landings, and in jungles. They are divided up into LXI Gun and LXII Gun. LXII is put in charge of capturing Chaiya. They will land at Sichon, which should be an unopposed landing, and then separate into two groups: one will head north to capture Chaiya, the other south to capture the port at Nakhon Si Thammarat. This guarantees a supply line, if there are any problems. The northern portion of the campaign will be carried out by I, II, and LXI Gun. I Gun will land at Chon Buri, where they can attack Bangkok without a river crossing penalty. II Gun will land at Hua Hin, and strike at Phet Buri from the south. LXI Gun will land at Nakhon Pathom, in between Bangkok and Phet Buri, and will be responsible for preventing the reinforcement of either province by Siam, and helping either I Gun or II Gun if needed. This plan is well-designed to prepare for contingencies. If II Gun is successful, they will capture a large port which will allow for resupply and reinforcement of themselves and LXI Gun; if I Gun is successful, they will capture Siam’s supply stockpiles, and can hold out indefinitely. Also note that I tend to avoid attempting to land on the key provinces directly. The amphibious assault penalty is so steep (even for marines), it is almost always preferable to land in an adjacent province and fight by land, than to attack defended provinces directly.

My first naval invasion of the war, Siam

    The invasion is carried off with a hitch. We declare war on October 16th, and the landings are completed by the 18th. LXII Gun meets no resistance whatsoever, and captures Chaiya with nothing more than legwork. Bangkok is defended by the Royal Bangkok Police division (a full strength garrison unit), which puts up a tenacious but futile resistance. They lose 964 killed, while I Gun suffers 77 casualties. Phet Buri is defended by the 1 and 2 Thai Infantry Divisions, which are unmobilized. They take 495 casualties here, and inflict 43 on us. LXI Gun is not involved in any combat. On the 22nd the Siam government formally surrenders. We get a nice little chunk of war booty in the form of 100 money, 3000 units of supplies and fuel, 2000 metals, and 1000 rare materials.

    The naval portion of the invasion is worth recapping. Siam had a pair of light cruisers and a destroyer; nothing significant, but enough firepower to sink unguarded transports. 1 & 2 Kaigun kept them in port at Phet Buri, while the carrier groups hammered them. I had the groups from 10 Kaigun perform the port strikes while 11 Kaigun’s flight groups performed intercept duty. We were able to quickly neutralize Siam’s air force, but the ships rather doggedly stayed afloat. 10 Kaigun’s flight groups were eventually worn out, so those from 11 Kaigun took over. It was the Zuiho that eventually gets credit for sinking the destroyer and one of the cruisers, while the Akagi claims the other cruiser.

Xibei San Ma and Tibet - Autumn of 1938

    My plans for the conquest of the remaining Chinese states are slowed significantly by the enormous distances, rugged terrain, and terrible infrastructure. It is August before my troops are in position adequately. During that time I’ve finished up my first corps of mountain troops, and they are able to arrive at the front months before VII Gun. With 1 Homen-Gun heading south for redeployment elsewhere, I transfer the leaders of IV Gun (who have significant mountaineering experience) to the new mountain Gun, dubbed LI Gun, and fill the vacated spots of IV Gun with fresh meat.

My plans for the conquest of Tibet and Xibei San Ma.  I renamed L Gun to LI Gun later to give me more consistency in army construction.

    The invasions start on August 7th. I drew up the plans to avoid river crossings, and it becomes immediately obvious how significant that penalty is once it’s gone. Xibei San Ma has most of its defenders fully mobilized, but their front line collapses with minimal resistance. Within a day we drive their line back, inflicting over 1000 casualties, while suffering less than 100 ourselves. Xibei counterattacks VII Gun, but across a river, and that collapses without having any significant effect. LI Gun is able to cross the Yellow River (which has become a sort of initiation rite) into Lanzhou with no particular problem. VII Gun encounters the only fighting of any significance in Golmud, where three Xibei divisions put up a staunch defense for three days, inflicting 806 fatalities on us, and taking 627 in return. By September 13th, 35 Shidan (the only division in the Gun without artillery) occupies Golmud, bringing the war to an end. The booty is gradually improving, and we receive 135 money, 3800 supplies, 1200 fuel, and a very valuable trove of 1280 rare materials.

    VIII Gun is the only unit assigned to take Tibet, and they have little difficulty in it, aside from the long march. They attack directly from Banbar to Lhasa. Tibet is not mobilized, and Lhasa is defended by one regular army division and one demobilized militia division. Even so, they hold us off for two days, and inflict 77 deaths against us, while suffering 287 themselves, a more respectable effort than Xibei San Ma put up. Tibet reinforces Lhasa on August 19th while we are in transit, but these troops are brushed aside easily. Tibet surrenders as our troops occupy their capital on October 2nd, and we immerse ourselves in the booty of … nothing. There is not a single drop of energy, metal, or rare materials, apparently, in all of Tibet, and what little money they may have built up was apparently spent on supplies, which they went to the trouble of consuming before we marched in. Mental note: never play as Tibet.

    Our war declarations prompt Greece to join the Allies, followed a week later by South Africa. I’m not sure what the logic is in that, but that’s what happened. I am now faced with some pretty steep obstacles for the near future. I had originally planned on conquering Australia and New Zealand before they joined the Allies, then hitting the United Kingdom (or at least destroying most of their navy) before the United States joined the Allies, thus saving the US for the penultimate war. Alas, these plans are now moot, as the Allies are now solidly unified. I’m not sure how they found out about my plans, but perhaps ending every speech with “The Anglo-American Alliance Must Be Destroyed” tipped my hand a bit.

    In any event, the overall path of conquest remains largely the same, except that I will be focusing on the British areas of Asia prior to Oceania, and I will have to divert some effort to the American islands sooner than expected. The overall plan, however, is much different. Within two years or so, I find myself in a grand melee of a naval war. Instead of dealing with the (large and capable) British and American navies in sequence, I will now be facing them simultaneously, along with Australia and possibly France. In effect, it will be the Japanese navy versus all other ships in the world. We’ll see how that works out. In preparation, I have switched my production from a land-unit focus to an almost exclusively naval focus. After the completion of ten divisions of marines, I commission four new full aircraft carriers, the Amagi, the Ryujo, the Soryu, and the Hiryu, with accompanying CAGs. I doubt even this will be sufficient, but it’s a good start.

The Conquest of Guangxi Clique and Yunnan - Spring 1938

     On March 15^th, the Germans annex Austria.  I don’t blame them, it’s a lovely country.  I’d annex it too.  That seems like a good trigger for me to set 1 Homen-Gun into motion against the Guangxi Clique and Yunnan.

     The conquest of Guangxi Clique is hardly worth mentioning.  Despite a rather large number of divisions, they are completely unprepared for war.  None of their divisions appear to be mobilized, and consequently our direct strikes against their key cities are over within a matter of hours, with fewer than 100 total casualties suffered by I, II and III Gun.  It takes a few days of marching through the rugged terrain, but on the 22^nd Guangxi surrenders.  From this we receive about 50 money, around 2000 supplies and fuel, and small amounts of resources.

The Battle of Dali

     Yunnan, however, demonstrates a bit more foresight.  They have several regular army divisions along the front, and put up a formidable defense.  Dali is defended by 136 Bubing Shi and Guizhou Silingbu, both full strength regular army units.  They combine their defense with counterattacks against my flanks.  Personally, I think these counterattacks are unwise, as they, like me, are attacking across a river towards mountains.  They would’ve been much better off reinforcing Dali.  But I’m not one to complain when my enemy makes a mistake.  The three counterattacks cost us 96 killed, and inflict 1521 against the Yunnan forces.  More importantly, previously full-strength, high-organization divisions are spent and unavailable to shuffle into Dali after its defenders retreat.

     The first part of the Battle of Dali last a week.  The troops there retreat on the 23^rd; we suffer 450 dead in the effort, while Yunnan loses 672.  It is a long march, however, from Panzhihua to Dali, and Yunnan has plenty of time to move more troops in.  On April 8^th the 21 Duli division arrives to slow us down.  We lose another 173, and inflict 347 against them, before they retreat.  By the 18^th, yet another division arrives, 20 Jun, and puts up a fight, costing us another 146 KIA, and suffering 361 in turn.  Throughout the nearly two month long offensive, V Gun loses 865 men, and inflicts 2901 casualties, which gives us an unexpectedly favorable ration of better than three to one.

The Battle of Kunming

     Oddly, the more significant point, Kunming, was less well-defended.  Kunming is Yunnan’s capital, and its capture alone forces Yunnan to surrender.  It is, however, deeper into the country, making its capture marginally more complicated.  We first strike from Xichang to Donchuan.  Donchuan is defended by 45 Jun, a regular army division, and a militia reserve.  They break after six days of battle, at a cost to us of around 300 killed.  Two counterattacks against Xichang inflict only 13 casualties on us, while costing them over 600.  In desperation, they move a partially mobilized militia division in on March 27^th, which is quickly brushed aside.  Kunming itself is also defended by a partially mobilized militia division, which retreats on April 4^th after very light losses on both sides.

     The fighting is over by mid April, but there is still plenty of marching to be done.  It is May 8^th before IV Gun occupies Kunming, and V Gun does not even occupy Dali until the 15^th.  Yunnan, however, throws in the towel and surrenders after its capital falls.  We get a small amount of money, supplies, etc, but most importantly, about 700 desperately needed rare materials.

     We initially expected the stiffest resistance to be from the Guangxi Clique, and had our tactical and carrier-based bomber groups focused on hitting them.  It became immediately apparent this was incorrect, and we quickly shifted our bombing targets to Yunnan.  Our tactical bombers were killing between 100 and 250 per sortie, with two to four sorties per day, meaning they dealt far more damage to the Yunnan manpower than our ground forces.  The carrier groups predictably dealt fewer casualties, but also contributed at least around a thousand casualties.  Early in the war, Major General Ozawa had performed enough bombing run to gain the tank buster trait, and his skill has improved to level 5, earning him the promotion to Air General, the first commander to receive that distinction.

Diplomatic Affairs

     My successes in China have not gone unnoticed in the rest of the world.  On March 19^th, New Zealand joins the Allies, followed shortly by an announcement of a trade embargo from the US.  This is somewhat unfortunate, as we were importing large amounts of metals and rare materials from them, but we are able to replace most of the trade agreements without too much difficulty.  On March 30^th, the US goes even further by joining the Allies themselves, followed the next day by Australia.  Perhaps they think I am going to declare war on them next.  What irrational paranoia!  I’m not planning on invading them for at least a few months.

The Collapse of Nationalist China

     II Gun encounters some trouble when moving along the Yangtze.  I was continuing my standard operations here, mainly as a matter of habit, as this area is very unlikely to be relevant before the end of the war.  Because II Gun was already across the river, the idea was to have them push southwest and clear the way for III Gun to cross unopposed in their rear.  The Chinese put up an unexpectedly stiff resistance at Fanchang, at cost us 161 KIA, while losing 425 themselves.  This turns out to be the last significant engagement of the war, however.

     After the Battle of Enshi, the remainder of V Gun pours across the river and set up to attack Changde.  The Chinese unwisely ignore the more immediate threat, and shuttle troops to attempt to block IV Gun at Jinshi.  By early December the entire V Gun is set to launch the final assault of the war, and pitch into Changde.  The city is held by a single militia division, which crumples after several hours of perfunctory resistance.  There are few casualties to speak of, and V Gun occupies the city on December 7^th, 1937 (a day that will live in moderate amounts of fame).  The Nationalist Government formally surrenders the next day.

     At this point, I run some scenarios past my political advisers (i.e. I save and restore a few times).  It turns out that declaring war against Xibei San Ma alone is not sufficient to keep our country mobilized, even if I declare war against Yunnan and the Guangxi Clique too.  When I let the Nationalists surrender without continuing the war against the other states, however, I am allowed to stay fully mobilized (meaning, I keep the service-by-requirement and total economic mobilization policies).  I have to admit that I have no idea how this game works sometimes.

     Anyway, I decide to redeploy my troops to a employ blitz strategies against these states, when I decide to resume the offensive.  2 Homen-Gun continues in the west.  VIII Gun is sent to Banbar, to attack Tibet’s capital of Lhasa.  VII Gun is sent to Sogxian to attack northward towards the Xibei San Ma capital at Golmud.  VI Gun is deployed to Guangyuang to capture the eastern Xibei points of Tianshui and Lanzhou.  The cavalry units are positioned along the eastern border, to prevent any mischief, as originally planned.

     1 Homen-Gun will be responsible for Yunnan and the Guangxi Clique.  V Gun will proceed from Panzhihua to Dali.  IV Gun will take a longer route from Xichang to Kumming.  III Gun will be sent to Anshun to capture Baise.  II Gun will be split into three groups to hit Guilin from multiple directions.  I Gun is ferried to the southern coast, and will hit Nanning from the south.

Invasion plans of 1 Homen-Gun for the Spring of 1938

     With the new year, we get a fresh crop of generals to choose from.  In order to help with potential supply issues, generals Honda, Okabe and Sagara are put in charge of VI, VII, and VIII Gun, respectively.  We also make some minor adjustments to our cabinet, but leave the air and naval command as is.

     In early February our rocket test site is completed.  While I have little use for rockets themselves, they open the door to jet engine and missile research, which provides some of the dramatic improvements in the late game.  The completion also frees up a large chunk of my IC.  With my divisions pretty well set for artillery and engineers, I’ve been working on some mountain and marine divisions.  Sadly, the mountain troops won’t be ready for the invasions of the minor Chinese states, all of which are heavily mountainous, but I predict they will have plenty to do throughout the next decade.  The marines are built with an eye towards the Oceanic states.  Australia, in particular, will require a fair number of beach landings.

     On February 16^th the Changkufeng Lake incident erupts.  It is a minor affair on both sides; we lose 500 supplies, they lose a mediocre general, not a big deal.  It has a grand significance, though: to remind us we now have less than ten years to build up an army that can topple the Soviets.  That won’t happen with our current resources, manpower, and strategic location.  We do, however, have a good start.