Decision Time

    So, with all of the minor East Asian states now under my control, the time has come to actively decide whether I want to go to war against the Allies by myself or wait for the Germans. I draw up the following plan for the initial stages of the war, which I will likely use regardless of whether I go to war now or wait:

Plans for the first phase of the Japanese-Allies War

    In my previous conflicts, the navy was largely superfluous; they had to knock out a few escort craft belonging to the Nationalists and Siam, but never had a critical or even mildly challenging role. That ends once I declare war; my navy will be pitted against the Americans and the British simultaneously, with the French, Dutch and Australians thrown in for good measure. We will be significantly outnumbered, and frequently out-gunned. The navy will be the center of the war for the first year or two. Accordingly, I have divided up the map into four key zones of conflict:

    Zone 1 is the supply defense zone, in which my main supply ships travel to and from mainland Asia and the Philippines. If I am unable to maintain naval supremacy in this zone, I basically consider it a lost game.

    Zone 2 is the region from Southern China to the Dutch East Indies. The focal point of this zone is Singapore, as this is largest port in the area and will be the base of the British fleet. I expect the French and the Dutch to send ships to this area too, as it covers most of their Asian ports. If zone 1 is secured, most of my effort will go into offensive operations in this area, namely hunting down raiders, Allied convoys and transports, and conducting port strikes.

    Zone 3 is a small circular region around Iwo Jima, Saipan and Guam. This will be the initial focal point of my war against the US. Guam is far from any American territories, and is easily isolated. It also has a fairly small port, and the Americans can station only a part of their fleet there at a time. If I have surplus ships, I may attempt to conduct offensive operations here, but the main naval effort here will be focused on light convoy raiding and preventing the capture of Saipan and Iwo Jima.

    Zone 4 is made up of the Pacific Ocean around Marcus Island in the north down to Micronesia and Palau in the south. I intend to effectively cede all of these minor islands to the Allies. I have removed all troops from them, and I am not supplying them. They have no resources, and are not worth defending. As the war progresses, I can counter-invade these islands once I have the navies of the European powers.

    On the land, I am expecting a relatively easy time of it. The various Allied areas are separated and lightly defended, and the AI rarely handles invasions well (namely, they usually don’t concentrate their forces to put up an effective resistance). 1 Homen-Gun will be responsible for the Philippines. I and II Gun will land at Lopez on the main island of Luzon. From there they will advance west and north to capture Manila and other key points in the nation. V Gun will be landed at Taytay on Palawan Island, and will capture Puerto Princessa and Calapan in order to provide a supply line for the main effort. IV Gun will land at Daet on Luzon, and proceed south to capture the port at Legaspi and victory points farther south, if necessary. III Gun will initially be responsible for capturing Hong Kong, but once that is done, will join I & II Gun in the main drive across Luzon.

    2 Homen-Gun will be responsible for mainland Asia. VI Gun will attack eastward from Siam into French Indochina, and will move up the coast in a wide front to occupy all of the provinces, starting with My Tho (with the Black Soil resource) and Saigon in the south, then moving north through Hue to Hanoi and Haiphong. I expect little resistance from the French, maybe one or two divisions, and we should get the Gulf of Tonkin bonus rather quickly. VII, VIII, and the new formed IX Gun will attack northwestward from Phet Buri into the British areas of control. IX Gun will be going alone at first, as the other two Gun are still marching back from Tibet and Xibei San Ma, but I expect little resistance here as well. LI Gun, once the roads in the area allow it, will attack southward from Tibet into Bhutan and Nepal. They will then clear the mountains of Northern India while 2 Homen-Gun focuses on the easier terrain of Southern India.

    LXI Gun will attack south from Siam towards Singapore. Once that key point is taken, they will split into two parts, one hopping along the Sumatran coastline to occupy all of the small Dutch ports, while the other part focuses on Oosthaven and the nearby Oil Refinery resource. Once that area is taken, the two will combine to sweep the island of Java from west to east, effectively knocking the Dutch out of the war.

    LXII Gun will be sent to Borneo. The first target will be Kuala Belait; once that is captured, the Gun will be split into two parts; one part will proceed southwestward to capture the remaining areas of Northern and Western Borneo, while the other part re-embarks and starts bouncing down the eastern coastline to capture the ports along the Makassar Strait. Once that is done, we will cross over to Makassar, and seal up the Makassar Strait strategic bonus.

    So, I come to decision time. I have three options:

1. Declare full war against the Allies now, compelling Germany to join in;
2. Declare limited war against the Allies now, and let Germany declare a separate war later on; or,
3. Wait until Germany declares war, which will likely be around September 1939, and declare a separate war then.

    I don’t think my first option is very attractive. Due to its size, Germany will automatically take the leadership role in any war, meaning that they will gain ownership of some provinces which I haven’t occupied whenever a nation surrenders. That’s a very unappealing option, as it means that Germany may receive several key points, which may mean I lose large amounts of rare materials and oil. Further, if they lose against the Soviets (which I’m planning on), the Soviets may then gain control of some of this area, which will make for a major mess.

    There are two benefits to waiting. First, it will allow the Germans to distract part of the British and French navies. Second, I will have extra time to work on my aircraft carriers, which are set to be completed in the summer of 1940. While the first benefit is helpful, it is not critical, and I expect the Germans to declare war within the year anyway, at which point the Brits will pull their navy back home. The second benefit is perhaps even more dubious. While building the carriers, I am consuming very limited resources. By the time the Germans declare war, my industry may already have run out of rare materials or metals, and I likely won’t even have the cash to fully mobilize. Also, during that same time, both the Americans and the British will be building ships of their own. The words of Abraham Lincoln come to mind: “You are unprepared, they are unprepared. You are both equally unprepared.” He was wise to urge his generals to attack early and decisively; they did not follow his advice, and hundreds of thousands died as a result. The choice, then, is clear. I begin moving my troops to their kick-off stations, and prepare to declare war at the beginning of the year.